Proposing: The American Autonomy Initiative
A national strategy to lead in autonomy across land, sea, air, and space
America is behind in drone technology. We don’t produce enough of them, and decades of regulatory blunders have stalled domestic commercial development. That’s a big problem, because drones are proving decisive on battlefields today and will be critical to transportation and logistics in the future.
At a recent Boyd Institute event with leaders across government, industry, and policy, we examined this vulnerability. While we expected to focus on industrial strategy — reducing reliance on China, shoring up supply chains, preparing for future conflicts — a deeper insight emerged: The most strategic move isn't just to protect supply chains. It’s to ignite explosive growth in American commercial drones and autonomous vehicles across all domains.
Out of that insight came an aggressive framework to drive this growth:
A Vision for Autonomy
Autonomy is coming fast. Drones are just one part of an inexorable wave of technological change bringing autonomy to vehicles in every domain — air, land, sea, and space. Autonomous systems will transform logistics, industry, and even war. Early signs are clear: autonomy wins. It’s cheaper, faster, and more precise. And soon, it will dominate.
A Strategy for Leadership
To lead economically and militarily, the U.S. must pioneer the design, production, deployment, and coordination of autonomous vehicles across air, land, sea, and space. This will reinvigorate our industrial base, slash costs, and give America a first-mover advantage as the world reorganizes around fleets of smart, self-directed machines. It will return the U.S. to a global leadership role in transportation and logistics as massive fleets of autonomous vehicles outcompete cumbersome, expensive, and inefficient legacy competitors.
Where We Stand Today
To set the U.S. up for success, we need to take action across every domain of autonomy. Here’s where we stand currently:
Space: The U.S. already leads in space autonomy. SpaceX dominates global space transportation, accounting for 52% of all launches and 90% of total payload mass. Its lead is growing as costs fall and launch frequency accelerates.
Land: The U.S. is in a race with China for leadership in land-based autonomy, led by pioneers like Waymo and Tesla. Waymo has already captured 25% of the San Francisco rideshare market in under two years and is on track to surpass Uber in the next 18 months. Tesla is close behind, with an aggressive rollout underway in Austin, TX. Chinese firms like Baidu (Apollo), Pony.ai, and WeRide are making rapid progress, but they lack access to the critical training data amassed from Tesla’s hundreds of billions of real-world passenger miles.
Air: Air autonomy remains far behind its potential, hamstrung by regulatory barriers and the absence of a national lead innovator. U.S. inaction has allowed China — led by DJI — to dominate drone production and supply chains, creating serious economic and national security vulnerabilities. Reclaiming leadership will require the U.S. to unleash a domestic drone ecosystem that can scale end-to-end, from manufacturing and fleet operations to global deployment.
Sea: Autonomous shipping is virtually nonexistent, blocked by outdated regulations — both globally (IMO) and domestically (the Jones Act) — and a lack of private investment. To date, only one fully autonomous container ship has launched: Norway’s all-electric Yara Birkeland. The U.S. has a first-mover opportunity to lead here, developing smart shipping fleets capable of accessing small- and mid-size ports around the world.
A Call to Action: The American Autonomy Initiative
We propose a bold national initiative to establish U.S. leadership in autonomous systems across land, sea, air, and space. Just as the internet defined the 1990s and mobile shaped the 2000s, autonomy will transform trillion-dollar industries and determine the next era of global leadership. With smart, strategic moves, the U.S. can unlock explosive innovation and secure long-term technological advantage.
Here are seven examples of such moves we recommend:
1. Create Aerial Drone Thoroughfares
To accelerate drone autonomy, the FAA should designate unlicensed aerial corridors — what we call an “Internetwork in the Sky” — to enable large-scale, permissionless innovation. These corridors could follow existing road infrastructure for simplicity: a lower-altitude network with speed caps, and a higher-altitude corridor above highways for long-distance, high-speed travel. Crucially, these corridors should be open-access, with governance — including standards, security, and interoperability — handled by independent bodies akin to the IETF, IAB, and W3C for the internet. Government regulation would remain minimal, focused on limiting negative externalities (e.g., safety, noise, and national security). If the U.S. leads in establishing this model, others will follow, adopting American standards in the process.
2. Mandate Labeling and Modularity
Adopting FCC-style labeling and modularity requirements would strengthen the security, transparency, and resilience of the U.S. autonomy ecosystem. Country-of-origin labeling would allow agencies and critical users to identify and avoid foreign-made systems that pose security risks — especially from China. Modularity — interchangeable components for navigation, sensors, and communication — would reduce vendor lock-in and lower the barrier for trusted domestic suppliers. These standards would lay the foundation for a secure, open ecosystem, much like USB and Wi-Fi did for computing.
3. Spur Demand Through Public Missions
We can drive adoption by launching national initiatives that apply autonomous systems to urgent public needs, beyond transportation and logistics. Start with infrastructure monitoring, natural resource mapping, emergency response, and firefighting. Drones can deliver low-cost, high-frequency inspection of aging infrastructure, improving safety and reducing maintenance costs. They can also support environmental monitoring and climate adaptation. In disaster response, autonomous systems can provide real-time intelligence and operate in dangerous conditions. These aren’t speculative use cases but critical needs. Meeting them with autonomy creates public value and a flywheel of market demand.
4. Catalyze Industry Investment
To unlock private capital, we recommend a coordinated investment strategy combining public-private funding, procurement reform, and targeted incentives. This includes matching grants, streamlined dual-use procurement pathways, regulatory sandboxes for testing, and tax credits for domestic manufacturing. To attract venture capital specifically, the government should offer tools like capital gains deferrals, autonomy-focused Opportunity Zones, or a national autonomy fund modeled after In-Q-Tel or the CHIPS Act. Advance market commitments from federal agencies would further de-risk early-stage development and validate long-term demand. Together, these measures would unleash private investment and build a robust U.S. autonomy ecosystem.
5. Invest in Domestic Supply Chains
To ensure both resilience and sovereignty, the U.S. must invest in the full supply chain for autonomy, from chips and batteries to compute infrastructure and connectivity. Advances in AI, 5G/6G, and satellite positioning have made large-scale autonomy possible, but we risk falling behind without domestic production. We recommend tax credits for U.S.-based manufacturing and R&D, streamlined regulatory approvals, and fast-track procurement for American-made systems. Smartly designed domestic content requirements can further drive investment without stifling innovation. Focused support for critical inputs — especially semiconductors and next-gen batteries — will ensure long-term competitiveness.
6. Build the Workforce for Autonomy
To fully realize the autonomy economy, we must develop the workforce to support it. This includes training programs for autonomy managers, system operators, and advanced manufacturing workers. Community colleges, vocational programs, and land-grant universities all have a role to play. If successful, the American Autonomy Initiative could generate hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next decade — from aerospace engineering to infrastructure monitoring — with even broader impact as U.S. autonomy exports grow. A coordinated workforce strategy will help fill these roles with American workers and ensure the initiative is economically and politically sustainable.
7. Treat AI Simulation and Training As Strategic Asset
To lead in next-generation autonomy, the U.S. must invest not just in deployment, but in the training of adaptive AI systems — platforms that learn from their environment and operate independently in real time. We propose launching a national Frontier Autonomy R&D Program focused on the entire AI-native autonomy stack: foundational models, simulation platforms (e.g., Nvidia), training data centers (e.g., Tesla’s DOJO), and real-world testbeds. The nation that masters adaptive autonomy will shape the future frontier, economically, militarily, and strategically.
Conclusion: It’s Go Time
The American Autonomy Initiative is about shaping who leads the world in autonomous transportation and logistics in every domain. A victory in accelerating autonomy would radically improve US national security and our economy’s agility for decades to come. By investing in domestic capacity and by unleashing innovation across all domains, we can secure both strategic advantage and long-term prosperity.
The time for half-measures is over. It’s time to lead. Let’s hit the “go” button now.
Interesting.