Paving the way for autonomous and nuclear-powered shipping

There’s a generational opportunity to build SpaceX equivalents for maritime, but this requires smart, forward-looking policies.

NS Savannah was the first nuclear-powered merchant ship. It was built in the 1950s with funding from U.S. government agencies.

What type of company would Elon Musk build if he turned his attention to maritime? 

I’ve been contemplating this question since kicking off our Maritime Initiative. My take is that he’d focus on building the commercial leader in either nuclear-powered or autonomous shipping, aiming to transform the industry within 10-15 years. It would be the maritime equivalent of SpaceX, or even Tesla.

The point of the question isn’t to obsess over Musk, though I admire his entrepreneurial abilities. It is a shorthand way of asking where there are large, generationally significant commercial opportunities in maritime and how we can leapfrog the current, woeful state of American maritime. Although this question focuses on commercial opportunities, it also gives us a heuristic for policy objectives. To put it bluntly, we need to lay the policy groundwork both autonomous and nuclear-powered shipping now.

In making this case, I want to acknowledge that nuclear-powered shipping and autonomous shipping are separate animals, each with their own technical and regulatory gauntlets. It is unlikely that a nuclear-powered ship would be autonomous as well. Thus, my intent is not to meld these issues but to point to each of them as disruptive technologies that present SpaceX-level opportunities.

The timing is right for aggressively pursuing both opportunities. The convergence of several technical trends will make both autonomous and nuclear-powered shipping feasible in the coming decades. These include: 

• advancements in nuclear reactor technology, particularly in small modular reactors (SMRs); 

• rapid progress in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies that are enabling sophisticated autonomous navigation systems;

• developments in sensor technology and satellite communications that facilitate better connectivity and data exchange, enabling remote monitoring and control of ships. 

The business case for both nuclear-powered and autonomous shipping is compelling. Obviating the need for bunkering and slow-steaming when fuel prices spike, autonomous and nuclear-powered ships promise to drastically reduce operational costs and increase efficiency. They’ll do this, in part, by reducing the need for the two largest operating expenses: fuel in the case of nuclear propulsion, and labor in the case of automation. These technologies will also spur an entirely new realm of advanced technology maritime jobs and startups, which will help grow and evolve this critical sector. Both technologies promise meaningful operational savings, making the shipping industry significantly more competitive and efficient.

Advancements in automation could lead to greater safety and reliability as well. Autonomous navigation systems, equipped with AI and machine learning, can optimize routes, avoid obstacles, and reduce human error, leading to safer and more efficient maritime operations.

And nuclear-powered shipping should not imply greater risks. Advancements in reactor technology continue to mitigate risks of explosions and meltdowns. And it is worth keeping in mind that nuclear-powered vessels, especially submarines and ice-breakers, have been in operation since the 1950s. The NS Savannah was the first nuclear-powered merchant ship, built in the late 1950s. Russia currently has a nuclear-powered cargo ship that was commissioned in 1988.

The environmental case for nuclear-powered shipping is huge. The International Maritime Organization, the UN regulatory body that sets many of the standards for global shipping, has set a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The European Union is starting to charge for carbon emissions from shipping. Nuclear is the only realistic, carbon-free option for shipping. Unlike conventional ships that burn fossil fuels, making up 3 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear propulsion is a clean energy source that produces no air pollution. It’s a win on operational and environmental costs.

Policy Recommendations

In last week’s article, William Cahill suggested that American policy should treat advanced nuclear maritime policy like the Space Race. I loved this and would add autonomy to the equation as well. The US has a head start there, too.

The market landscape is wide open for nuclear-powered and autonomous shipping, but capitalizing on these opportunities requires friendly policy frameworks. The following are some recommendations:

1. Regulatory Frameworks for Autonomy: Develop regulations governing the operation of autonomous vessels, including standards for navigation, communication, and safety. This includes amending the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) to accommodate autonomous operations.

2. Nuclear Regulation and Oversight: Establish clear guidelines for the licensing, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear-powered ships. This involves setting international standards for reactor design, radiation protection, and fuel handling, overseen by bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

3. Environmental Protections: Implement strict environmental safeguards to ensure nuclear-powered shipping does not harm marine ecosystems. This includes regulations on reactor design to prevent contamination and protocols for dealing with nuclear waste.

4. Research and Development Support: Encourage innovation through government funding and incentives for research into nuclear maritime technology and autonomous navigation systems. This could involve public-private partnerships to share the risks and rewards of pioneering technologies.

5. International Collaboration: Foster global cooperation to ensure consistent regulatory standards and promote the safe, efficient, and sustainable operation of autonomous and nuclear-powered vessels. This could involve agreements and collaborations with allies and various multinational organizations.

Through forward-thinking policies and creative collaborations, we can pave the way for American maritime companies that mirror the innovation and audaciousness of SpaceX. In my view, this means laying groundwork for both autonomous and nuclear-powered shipping.