The Boyd guys had the opportunity to chat with
, a leading housing analyst known for her deeply-researched, often out-of-consensus takes on housing, mortgage finance, commercial real estate, macro and technology.
Kicking Off the Housing Huddle: Introductions and Setup (00:00:00 - 00:02:04)
- and greet the growing audience and introduce the Boyd Institute as a virtual think tank currently focused on housing policies.
Melody Wright shares her expertise in housing analysis, mortgage finance, and banking systems, plugging her Substack, YouTube, and Twitter (@M3_Melody).
The discussion sets the stage for diving into the housing market’s challenges, emphasizing Melody’s insights from the 2008 crisis.
Crisis Alert: Diagnosing the Housing Headache (00:02:04 - 00:06:32)
Melody declares the U.S. housing market in crisis, fueled by decades of using homes as economic boosters since the late 80s, leading to prices outpacing median incomes.
Investor dominance has sidelined first-time buyers, hitting record lows since the 80s, with young Americans relying on parental help amid frozen affordability.
“We’re at a crisis point because... any young American is going to tell you right now they don’t believe that they can afford a house without assistance,” Melody stresses, highlighting widespread hopelessness.
Price Puzzle: Why No Crash Despite Demand Drought? (00:06:32 - 00:14:50)
Demand from investors and relaxed lending has reversed, with short-term rentals flooding markets and institutions selling off for six quarters, yet prices hold due to low sales volumes.
Government programs like FHA (now 13-15% of the market) and down payment assistance prop up values, creating artificial stability amid off-MLS deals and fake transactions.
Melody warns of data distortions, noting “You want to talk about money printing? That’s what they’re doing in this space,” as cash-out refis inflate the system.
Building Bonanza Gone Bust: Oversupply Exposé (00:14:50 - 00:20:44)
Massive overbuilding across the U.S., especially in the Sunbelt, stems from misleading narratives like “200 people moving to Austin daily,” ignoring temporary construction booms and immigrant inflows.
Surveys undercount inventory, with 15 million vacant homes and boomer demographics set to flood the market by 2035, pulling forward fake household formations from COVID.
“We will have to bulldoze some of these,” Melody says of sprawling subdivisions, underscoring the scale of oversupply hidden from official data.
Regional Riddles: From Boomtowns to Ghost Suburbs (00:20:44 - 00:30:20)
Overbuilding varies regionally, with Texas and Florida excesses contrasting underbuilt areas like Palo Alto, but even dense spots built maximally amid outflows (300k left LA 2020-2025).
Investor-owned rentals dominate high-desirability zones, while sanctuary cities mask population declines through immigration, creating urban vacuums.
Melody notes exurbs lack infrastructure, predicting “a big vacuum in the city centers from everybody that left to go get affordable housing.”
Correction Countdown: Forecasting the Fallout (00:30:20 - 00:35:31)
A worse-than-2008 correction looms, with prices realigning to incomes as short-term rentals and institutions sell, potentially reversing wealth effects for boomers.
Systemic risks tie to consumption (70% of GDP), but allowing creative destruction could benefit younger generations through affordability.
“I think it’s going to be a systemic risk to the economy,” Melody admits, yet sees silver linings if speculation rinses out for societal reset.
Policy Playground: YIMBYs, Interventions, and Mortgage Myths (00:35:31 - 00:56:38)
YIMBY efforts and zoning relaxations fall short without addressing evictions, taxes, and local specifics, as solutions need comprehensive, community-driven approaches.
Critique of 30-year mortgages as securitization-driven, with calls to return lending to banks for rational rates and productive capital.
“All of this hyperfinancialization that does nobody any good except for the top 1%,” Melody critiques, advocating infrastructure over subsidies.
Rental Reckoning and Wrap-Up Wisdom (00:56:38 - 01:10:22)
Build-to-rent models overbuilt amid pivots from ownership, leading to hot-potato sales and vacancies, with rents poised to drop as government-induced demand reverses.
Housing cycles like the Titanic: slow to turn but quick to sink, with awareness accelerating declines amid persistent pain over 1-3 years.
Closing plugs of the Boyd Institute’s essay contest on housing solutions, thanking 306 viewers for the record turnout.
Thank you
, , , , , and many others for tuning in live!Join us for our next Substack Live interview on Friday 10/24 at 2pm ET with economist Joshua Coven, who is an Assistant Professor of Real Estate at Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business and graduated with a PhD in Finance from NYU Stern in May 2025. Joshua is an expert on the impact of institutional investors in the single-family rental market and we look forward to his nuanced analysis!
