Securing Red Sea commerce from Houthi threats

Rapid response recommendations based on our Space on maritime issues

Friends,

In honor of Christmas, we are sending this week’s newsletter early.

This week’s “Monday Mandate” — listed below — is a rapid response memo based on a Space we hosted yesterday on X, formerly known as Twitter. For those not familiar, Spaces are the social media equivalent of open conference calls. Speakers are selected, but anyone can listen. You can hear a recording here and read the transcript here.

As an institute inspired by John Boyd, I often wonder how to apply maneuver to a think tank. How can we get inside the decision-making OODA on a global issue as it happens?

Organizing Spaces is an obvious opportunity. While most think tanks spend months planning lectures and roundtables, we can rapidly organize a Space on X based on a trending event, then follow up with recommendations and follow-on gatherings. This was the thinking behind the Space we hosted yesterday on the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Special thanks Michael Guimarin for moderating and co-organizing the event. Thanks also to featured speakers John Konrad, Ross Kennedy, and Sal Mercogliano. These guys are incredible minds on all things shipping and maritime. Please follow them if you don’t already.

Ok, so here’s a secret: Michael fed the transcript of the Space to an AI, which helped write the memo below. Consider it a speed innovation. It’s also a fun excuse; any mistakes are the fault of the AI! Feel free to add your two cents in the comments.

Wishing you a warm and joyful holiday season. - Jeff G

---

Situation summary

The Houthi drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea over the past weeks have exposed concerning gaps in America's naval readiness and commitment to protecting global commerce. Despite announcing Operation Prosperity Guardian, the US response so far has been plagued by confusion, inaction, and reliance on ineffective tactics.

As John Boyd taught, rapid adaptation is key in conflict. Yet the US has struggled to adapt to asymmetric threats. Valuable missiles costing millions of dollars are being used against cheap Houthi drones that cost thousands. Meanwhile, the US stockpile of critical munitions continues to dwindle.

A lack of maritime expertise at senior levels of government has led to delayed and disjointed decision-making. Commercial shipping companies have diverged around Africa rather than rely on US naval escorts. France has conducted more effective convoy operations than the US by focusing on protecting its own ships first.

This failure to safeguard a critical global choke point like the Red Sea risks permanent damage to US security alliances and naval credibility. Renewed commitment and focus is urgently needed.

Recommendations

1. Prioritize protection of US and allied commercial vessels to rebuild naval credibility. Escort all US-flagged vessels immediately.

2. Restock critical munitions like anti-ship and anti-air missiles as a top priority. Secure funding to expand domestic production capacity.

3. Recruit senior maritime expertise into key government roles to improve decision-making. Establish a maritime security council.

4. Work closely with capable allies like France to conduct joint convoy operations based on mutual interests.

5. Deter Houthi attacks by conducting precise retaliatory strikes on launch sites and capabilities. Restrict escalation but force changes in adversary behavior.

6. Develop innovative new doctrines and tactics to counter emerging asymmetric threats like drone swarms. Adapt more quickly than the adversary.

With focus, commitment and smart adaptation, US naval power and leadership can be restored in securing this vital waterway for the world’s commerce. The Boyd Institute stands ready to support these policy initiatives as needed.