“It’s going to be like an interstate highway in a rush hour in a snowstorm with everyone driving much too fast.”
This is how Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell described the coming space traffic chaos to Space.com. “Except that there are multiple interstate highways crossing each other with no stoplights,” he added.
Let’s be real: today’s space governance is not equipped for the expected increase in satellites, debris, and commercial and geopolitical players, much less the hyper-accelerated space gold rush we at the Boyd Institute envision.
A new coined term — ‘Public Space Awareness’
Space diplomacy moves at a snail’s pace. There’s something else we can do to lay the groundwork for better space governance: make space awareness public.
Picture a “Google Earth for Space” feed that anyone with an internet connection can access. Envision an API that lets developers build tools for managing satellite traffic, documenting debris, or doing astronomical research. I call this “Public Space Awareness.”
AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia, is well-positioned to make Public Space Awareness a reality. It would be smart to orient in this direction.
The DARC opportunity
Earlier this month, the US, UK, and Australia announced they would set up a network of three ground-based radars in each nation by 2030 as part of AUKUS’s advanced capability development. The program is called DARC, short for Deep Space Advanced Capability. The first DARC radar site will be constructed in Exmouth, Western Australia, and should be operational in three years.
DARC’s main focus will be tracking satellites, debris, and other objects in geosynchronous orbit, a vast region encompassing the space surrounding Earth up to roughly 37,000 kilometers in altitude. Here’s how US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Dr. John Plumb described it:
The Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability will leverage the geography of the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom to further enhance our collective space domain awareness: the ability to track, identify and characterize space objects. Space domain awareness is foundational to responsible space operations, and it is essential for responding to activity in space, whether that activity is routine or hostile.
DARC will offer higher sensitivity, better accuracy, and more agile tracking than other space awareness efforts. It may be tempting for AUKUS to keep DARC’s space intelligence close to the vest as a military capability. But there’s more to gain, for AUKUS and the world, by making it publicly available through Public Space Awareness.
Instead of viewing DARC through the lens of conventional military prowess, AUKUS could treat it as an opportunity for information statecraft. Imagine the power and possibility of an AUKUS-controlled feed for global Public Space Awareness.
Benefits of shared surveillance of the space commons
With space traffic growing exponentially, a shared API and information resource would lay the foundation for a global system of space traffic management, with AUKUS at the center. By powering Public Space Awareness, AUKUS wouldn’t just track satellites and other objects in space. It would control the infrastructure that coordinates that activity in the first place.
Public Space Awareness would also create accountability and deterrence for space debris and other bad actions. When Russia launched an anti-satellite missile test in November 2021, there wasn’t much awareness of the massive debris it created. The public had to read about it secondhand and rely on experts. There were no major enforcement mechanisms beyond finger-wagging. Russia got away with it.
With Public Space Awareness and a “Google Earth for Space,” the public could track events like this. They could see the debris creation with their own eyes. NGOs and environmental lawyers could capture evidence. The global court of public opinion would shift more aggressively against the perpetrator, creating its own form of enforcement and deterrence.
In the absence of stronger enforcement mechanisms under the Outer Space Treaty, shared surveillance of the commons is a way to shift behavior. It’s a vehicle for what Nobel Prize–winning economist Elinor Ostrom called polycentric governance: collectively governing a commons, like geosynchronous space, through multiple decentralized actors. Public Space Awareness could enhance regulatory compliance and overall space governance, with AUKUS at the center.
It’s impossible to imagine all the benefits of AUKUS-powered Public Space Awareness, but a few stand out. It could be used for astronomical research, helping people discover new wonders in space. It could support mining exploration to find new sources of strategic resources. It could aid environmental monitoring. And imagine the educational benefits: the virtual field trips students could take to different parts of space, and the imagination that would inspire.
Lessons from Google Earth
Before Google Earth launched publicly in June 2005, it would have been hard to imagine its impact. Most of us now intuitively recognize its value and utility, which have been overwhelmingly positive. Google Earth has been used to track genocide in Sudan, monitor border disputes between Georgia and Russia, and assist relief and rescue operations during Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters. Many of us have used it firsthand to scope out real estate, our streets or hometowns, or some far-off place.
A power move toward scalable space governance
AUKUS can bring a similar level of openness and transparency to the space domain. Public Space Awareness would bring order to space traffic, accountability to debris, and visibility to all objects and actions in space. The chaotic interstate McDowell described could become an orderly Autobahn, letting us accelerate space exploration for the benefit of humanity.