The Truth About Autonomy and Jobs
Autonomy will bring tremendous disruption — but with the right strategy, it can power a stronger American workforce
The Autonomy Imperative
Autonomy is critical to America’s commercial and geopolitical competitiveness. That conviction drove us to propose the American Autonomy Initiative, a national strategy to accelerate autonomy across land, sea, air, and space. But as this vision gains traction, a concern repeatedly comes up: What about jobs?
A Legitimate Fear: What About Jobs?
This worry is valid. Throughout history, major technological shifts—from the textile loom to the internet—have fueled fears of mass unemployment. In the case of autonomy, the threat feels especially acute. These systems are explicitly designed to perform human tasks, often with greater speed, precision, and endurance. How are humans supposed to compete with robots that never need to clock out? The fear is that autonomy will hollow out entire sectors, eliminating millions of jobs across long-haul trucking, warehouse logistics, ports, construction, maritime shipping, aerospace operations, and even satellite maintenance, with no clear path to replacement or recovery.
Displacement is Real, But So Is Opportunity
And indeed, some displacement is inevitable. McKinsey estimates that up to 9% of U.S. jobs—roughly 13 million—could be displaced by automation by 2030.1 That includes a significant share of physical and routine roles.
But this is only part of the story. The same McKinsey study projects that 17 to 25 million new jobs could be created during the same period. With sufficient investment in retraining, most displaced workers could transition into new, expanding sectors. In other words, autonomy is not a zero-sum replacement of labor, but a reallocation of human potential.
This expectation of disruption plus net job growth is consistent with global trends. According to the World Economic Forum, automation and AI are expected to eliminate 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025 — but also create 97 million new ones, particularly in areas such as data analysis, machine learning, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure.2 That’s a net gain of 12 million jobs globally, reinforcing the argument that technological disruption often coincides with broader labor market evolution.
We’ve Seen This Before
A historical comparison helps clarify the dynamic. In the early 20th century, tractors began to replace manual labor and draft animals on American farms. The result was a steep drop in agricultural employment, from 40% of the workforce in 1900 to under 2% today. It would’ve been easy to view the tractor as a massive threat to jobs in the early 1900s. But the effect of farm mechanization was transformational. It freed up labor for urban industries, fueled economic growth, and helped create the modern American economy. Autonomy today presents a similar inflection point.
New Sectors, New Roles
Moreover, autonomous systems don’t operate in a vacuum. Consider the emerging drone logistics industry. A national drone corridor would demand an entirely new ecosystem of jobs:
Engineers to design and deploy hardware and software
Remote pilots and fleet managers to oversee operations
Technicians for repair and maintenance
Construction workers to build drone ports and recharging infrastructure
Data analysts to monitor traffic and performance
Compliance officers to ensure safety and regulatory adherence
Across sea, air, space, and land, autonomy will spawn entirely new fields of work while transforming traditional ones.
Consider maritime. Autonomous vessels will require shipyard technicians, AI navigation specialists, and port logistics managers to support autonomous freight operations.
The same is true in the space domain. Satellite servicing drones and autonomous launch systems will demand mission engineers, aerospace technicians, and orbital traffic analysts.
For every role autonomy takes, it opens new opportunities in return. The Chamber of Progress forecasts that 114,000 to 455,000 workers will be employed in jobs related to autonomous vehicles over the next fifteen years.3 According to the FAA, the number of certified remote pilots in the U.S. is projected to grow to over 522,000 by 2029, signaling strong demand for drone-related employment across logistics, agriculture, inspection, and public safety.4 Autonomy in agriculture is creating demand for technicians, sensor analysts, agronomic AI specialists, and more.5
Autonomy Creates Localized Opportunities
Critics of autonomy often raise a valid point: past promises of “reskilling” haven’t always lived up to the hype. Many communities affected by automation in the 1980s and 1990s never recovered. That’s why the transition must be intentional. Federal investment, public-private partnerships, and regional strategies will be essential to ensure displaced workers are supported and new labor pipelines are built.
This brings up another upside to autonomy that’s often overlooked: geographic distribution. Unlike digital platforms concentrated in a few coastal hubs, autonomous infrastructure must be physically deployed across the country. That means job creation will be locally anchored. Autonomy creates opportunities for regions that have long been left behind by globalization and digitization. Imagine, for example, a smart port in Mississippi, a wildfire drone network in the West, or an autonomous simulation training facility in Iowa.
Earlier this year, Anduril announced it was building a $1 billion autonomous systems factory in Ohio, creating 4,000 jobs.6 This is the kind of investment and regional revitalization the American Autonomy Initiative seeks to scale nationwide.
The Real Risk: Falling Behind
The greater danger is losing global competitiveness. If America hesitates on autonomy, we risk ceding both economic and geopolitical ground to more aggressive competitors. But if we invest boldly—in the technology, the infrastructure, and most importantly the workforce—we can not only stay ahead but create a more resilient and inclusive economy in the process.
The truth is that autonomy will disrupt millions of jobs and reshape the economy. But with the right strategy, it can create even more and better opportunities for American workers and the country as a whole.
Recommendations tied to the American Autonomy Initiative
To ensure autonomy strengthens the American workforce and expands opportunity, we propose the following policies:
Create a National Autonomy Workforce Strategy
Establish dedicated federal funding for reskilling and apprenticeship programs focused on autonomy-related fields (e.g., drone operation, robotics maintenance, AI systems).
Partner with community colleges and vocational institutions to deliver fast, accessible training in high-demand technical roles.
Anchor Job Creation in Regional Deployment
Incentivize the siting of autonomous infrastructure—like drone corridors, smart ports, and autonomous ag zones—in underserved regions.
Leverage public-private partnerships to build local talent pipelines tied to deployment projects.
Establish Autonomy Innovation Zones
Designate regional zones for autonomy R&D, testing, and pilot deployment with regulatory flexibility and workforce incentives.
Prioritize zones in areas affected by industrial decline or where labor displacement risk is high.
Require Labor Impact Assessments for Major Autonomy Deployments
Ensure that federally supported autonomy projects include analysis of local job impact and plans for workforce transition.
Invest in Autonomy-Centered Public Service
Scale up autonomous systems for public uses—in emergency response, infrastructure inspection, environmental monitoring, and transportation—creating durable new roles in civil service.
With foresight and coordinated action, America can use autonomy to expand opportunity, strengthen communities, and secure global leadership in the decades to come.