Very good summary of the present Taiwan China situation. Chinas ambitions are very clear, and it therefor becomes essential to prevent this open and free island from being assimilated into the CCP dictatorship.
1. China isn't ready for a military solution and they know it, especially this year. There may be more activity, but I think your odds are probably too high for this year.
2. Readiness and execution is a spectrum... China's military has been tasked by Xi to be ready by 2027, not necessarily to invade (or blockade) in that year (they will have some minimum capability by then to execute, but not enough to defeat a US willing to fight it out in most cases... and a defeat, or even the loss of face by being forced to back down, could be a serious problem for the regime).
The longer they wait after that, the more ready they are militarily, but the more challenging things like industrial over-capacity, demographic problems and the resulting civil disorder become for them as well. It is probably better to look at this as a period of maximum danger starting in 2027 as they approach their peak military capability but have already moved past their peak demography and probably the economy as well and so are on the downslope (and so have incentive to act to change power balances now). This period of maximum danger will be less and taper off faster the more seriously the US takes this threat and acts to build readiness, but a lot of what will drive PRC decision-making will probably, like Russia's decision to invade Ukraine, be internal.
Well done. Seems like the loss of Constellation and the LCS has cost us a lot of preparatory time for such a conflict, and the new attention paid to the “Trump” class battleship may not be the best use of the Navy’s limited resources. Would love to read a follow-up about the best strategy to address this risk, given our limited timeframe.
A thoughtful piece. Did a Thread on Twitter: @Make_Me_Aware
Very good summary of the present Taiwan China situation. Chinas ambitions are very clear, and it therefor becomes essential to prevent this open and free island from being assimilated into the CCP dictatorship.
TSMC is much more value than a bunch of Venezuela tar sand sludge.
Two comments.
1. China isn't ready for a military solution and they know it, especially this year. There may be more activity, but I think your odds are probably too high for this year.
2. Readiness and execution is a spectrum... China's military has been tasked by Xi to be ready by 2027, not necessarily to invade (or blockade) in that year (they will have some minimum capability by then to execute, but not enough to defeat a US willing to fight it out in most cases... and a defeat, or even the loss of face by being forced to back down, could be a serious problem for the regime).
The longer they wait after that, the more ready they are militarily, but the more challenging things like industrial over-capacity, demographic problems and the resulting civil disorder become for them as well. It is probably better to look at this as a period of maximum danger starting in 2027 as they approach their peak military capability but have already moved past their peak demography and probably the economy as well and so are on the downslope (and so have incentive to act to change power balances now). This period of maximum danger will be less and taper off faster the more seriously the US takes this threat and acts to build readiness, but a lot of what will drive PRC decision-making will probably, like Russia's decision to invade Ukraine, be internal.
Well done. Seems like the loss of Constellation and the LCS has cost us a lot of preparatory time for such a conflict, and the new attention paid to the “Trump” class battleship may not be the best use of the Navy’s limited resources. Would love to read a follow-up about the best strategy to address this risk, given our limited timeframe.